Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

An unprecedented heatwave has already gripped New York City in early July 2026, with LaGuardia Airport recording a record-breaking 104°F on July 3, shattering a 60-year-old benchmark by three degrees [3]. This extreme event establishes a critical historical baseline for traders assessing the July 12 settlement, as the current 0% probability implies the market expects temperatures to fall well below the highest recorded ranges. Given that LaGuardia recently hit 104°F and Newark reached 105°F during the same surge, the threshold for the highest temperature on July 12 must be exceptionally high to trigger a YES outcome, likely requiring a repeat of these record-shattering conditions [3][10].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which list the historical maximum of 98°F set in 1988 as a key reference point [9]. While AccuWeather forecasts daily highs for mid-July 2026 to range between 73°F and 91°F, the ongoing heatwave suggests these models may underestimate potential extremes if the atmospheric conditions persist [2]. The primary catalyst remains the continuation of the East Coast heat dome, which has already killed 29 people in New Jersey and broken records across a 500-mile corridor [3]. Any announcement of a sustained high-pressure system or a new heat advisory from local authorities would be the decisive factor for price movement, as the current probability reflects a belief that the heatwave will subside before July 12.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.