Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces its peak summer heat on 15 July 2026, with the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport set to determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the event resolving as a specific outlier range, yet the frontrunner outcome is 98–99°F at 41%, followed by 96–97°F at 20%, indicating traders expect extreme heat rather than a cool anomaly [1].

Historical data from the National Weather Service for LaGuardia shows that mid-July in New York routinely produces temperatures exceeding 95°F, with several days in recent decades reaching 98°F or higher [2]. This consistent pattern of intense summer heat explains why the market heavily favours the upper 90s ranges, rendering the 0% probability for lower or anomalous outcomes a rational reflection of long-term climatic trends rather than an arbitrary dismissal.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for the New York area as the settlement window approaches, watching for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures below the 96°F threshold. While Wunderground will serve as the official resolution source for the day’s peak reading, real-time updates from the NWS office at OKX provide the earliest signal of whether the expected heatwave will hold or break [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.