Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces a critical heat check on 16 July 2026, as the LaGuardia Airport Station records its daily peak temperature to determine the market outcome. The crowd currently leans heavily toward a YES resolution, implying a 61% probability that the temperature will exceed the settlement threshold, with the 92–93°F range emerging as the single most likely specific outcome at 35% [1]. This pricing aligns with typical mid-July climatology for the region, where temperatures frequently breach 90°F during sustained summer heatwaves, suggesting the market is pricing in a standard warm day rather than an extreme anomaly.

Historical data from the National Weather Service confirms that LaGuardia regularly experiences highs in the 87–93°F band during this period, providing a factual baseline for the current 61% implied probability [2]. Traders should monitor the immediate 48-hour forecast from the National Weather Service office in Okeechobee, which covers the New York metro area, for any shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures [2]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, meaning the final reading depends entirely on the single highest temperature recorded by Wunderground for KLGA on that calendar day, with no re-trading possible after the cutoff [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.