Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the day’s maximum temperature at LaGuardia Airport, and the current 0% YES pricing implies the market is treating the chance of a higher-temperature outcome as effectively negligible. That is consistent with the source guidance pointing to a fairly narrow 83–87°F band for 22 July, which would leave the most likely settlement bins clustered in the mid-80s rather than near the top of the distribution.[1]

Historically, July in New York City is warm and humid, with typical highs around 30°C, so a mid-80s Fahrenheit outcome would sit close to seasonal norms rather than representing an outlier.[2] In practice, markets like this usually hinge on whether a brief afternoon spike, sea-breeze moderation, or cloud cover shifts the airport reading by a degree or two, which is often enough to move between adjacent bins when probabilities are already concentrated.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same-day forecast updates from the National Weather Service, any ensemble shifts in the last 24–48 hours, and the strength of the local heat ridge or cooling frontal passage over the Northeast.[1] If forecast guidance keeps trimming the upper end of the range, the case for hotter bins weakens further; if confidence rises in clearer skies and weaker onshore flow, the settlement reading could edge higher within the still-narrow mid-80s envelope.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.