Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 27 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. LaGuardia sits in Queens, exposed to Atlantic maritime influence, which moderates extreme heat compared to inland areas of the Northeast. July is typically the warmest month in New York City, with average highs around 27–28°C (81–82°F), though heat waves can push readings substantially higher.

Historical data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C (90°F) occur in roughly 40% of July days across a typical summer, whilst readings above 35°C (95°F) are less frequent, occurring in perhaps 10–15% of July days. The station's 30-year record includes several July days reaching 37–38°C (98–100°F), with the all-time July high at LaGuardia standing at 40°C (104°F) in 1999. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of relatively moderate conditions on that specific date, though seasonal norms alone would support a meaningful probability mass across multiple temperature bands.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate forecasts released in late June and early July 2026, particularly from the National Weather Service and European model consensus, which typically show skill in predicting heat patterns 2–3 weeks ahead. The Atlantic hurricane season and any tropical systems tracking toward the Northeast in late July could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, a high-pressure ridge establishing over the eastern seaboard would favour above-normal heat. Real-time conditions in the week preceding 27 July will provide the most reliable signal for adjusting probability across temperature ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.