Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's high before the market locks.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 78°F and 88°F, with the airport's 30-year average high for late July sitting near 84°F. The station has recorded extremes of 102°F in July during heat waves, though such readings occur roughly once per decade. Recent summers show increasing frequency of days exceeding 90°F in the city; the National Weather Service recorded 18 such days in July 2022 alone. Historical volatility in late-July readings—driven by Atlantic tropical systems, heat domes, and urban heat island effects—means outcomes spanning 75°F to 95°F remain plausible within a single day's range.

Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlook issued in early July 2026, which typically signals whether ridge-driven heat or Atlantic moisture patterns will dominate the Northeast. Tropical cyclone activity tracking toward the eastern seaboard in late July could suppress temperatures significantly. Real-time forecast models from the National Weather Service become reliable roughly 7–10 days before the event; any shift toward anomalous heat or unusual precipitation should trigger position reassessment. LaGuardia's measurement protocols remain consistent year-on-year, eliminating station-change variables that sometimes complicate long-range weather markets.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.