Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is experiencing a sharp cooling trend behind a frontal passage following an early July heatwave, with mid-70s readings now the most probable outcome for the region. This immediate shift in atmospheric conditions explains why the crowd-implied probability for extreme heat on 6 July 2026 sits at 0%, as the front has effectively suppressed the high temperatures that dominated the previous days.

Historical data from LaGuardia Airport frames this low probability against past extremes, such as the record-breaking 104°F recorded on 2 July 2010 and the 102°F peak during the 2013 heatwave, where midnight temperatures reached 94°F[2][5]. While July averages typically hover around 84°F with highs rarely exceeding 93°F, the current rapid descent from 100°F+ readings to mid-70s suggests a significant departure from the thermal norms that previously defined the month[8][9].

Traders should monitor the official daily climatological report from the National Weather Service for LaGuardia, which will confirm the precise maximum temperature once the settlement window closes[5]. The primary dependency is the persistence of the frontal passage; if the front stalls or retreats, temperatures could rebound toward the 80°F range, though current forecasts indicate daily highs will remain between 81°F and 99°F only if the cooling trend reverses[8]. No further announcements are expected beyond the standard Wunderground data release at the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.