Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on whether LaGuardia Airport will record a July 7, 2026 high temperature exceeding the threshold that triggers a YES outcome in this prediction market, currently priced at a 4% crowd-implied probability. Historical data shows LaGuardia has experienced extreme heat, with its all-time peak of 107°F recorded on July 3, 1966, and a recent record-breaking midnight temperature of 94°F on July 4, 2026, during an East Coast heatwave[1][8]. However, July 7 forecasts for 2026 indicate daily highs ranging between 81°F and 99°F, suggesting the current 4% probability may reflect a cautious assessment that the extreme conditions of early July will not persist to the 7th[2].

Traders should monitor daily weather announcements from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Wunderground, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia for all times on July 7[4]. The primary catalyst is the potential for a sudden heat spike, given the region’s recent volatility, but forecast models currently project overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F, which may limit daytime highs[2]. Any unexpected shift in atmospheric pressure or cloud cover could alter the outcome, so continuous tracking of the Wunderground history page for KLGA is essential before the settlement window closes[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.