Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's recorded high temperature on 24 May will determine the settlement range for this market. The resolution draws from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, measured at the airport's official weather station, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on the day itself.

New York City's late May temperatures typically range between 70–80°F, with historical data from the National Weather Service showing 24 May highs averaging around 75°F over the past three decades. The warmest 24 May on record at LaGuardia reached 89°F in 1977, whilst cooler years have seen highs near 62°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific range or uncertainty about which bracket will capture the actual reading. Comparable spring weather markets in the Northeast have shown that late-May forecasts stabilise considerably within two weeks of the event, as seasonal patterns become clearer.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as May 2026 approaches, particularly any anomalous pressure systems or heat domes that might push temperatures above the historical median. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and any early tropical activity could influence upper-level patterns affecting the Northeast in late May. Weather Underground's 10-day outlook will provide the most actionable signal roughly one week before settlement, though such forecasts carry inherent uncertainty at that lead time. Atmospheric conditions in early May will offer preliminary indication of whether the month trends warmer or cooler than normal.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.