Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is under a late-summer heat setup, with traders focused on whether the city gets a solid afternoon spike at Le Bourget rather than just a warm average for the day. The market resolves off the **highest temperature** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Paris-Le Bourget Airport, so the key number is the day’s peak hourly reading, not the summary high in the header.[2]

The current **0% YES** crowd price sits well below the range implied by nearby forecasts and Paris August history. Polymarket’s own market page points to a leading cluster around **32°C–33°C**, while Météo-France-era climatology for 11 August shows a long-run average maximum around **26.1°C** but an extreme of **39.5°C** on that date, underlining how quickly an August Paris day can overperform when high pressure locks in.[2][4] Broader Paris August records also show that highs in the upper 30s are not rare in hot spells.[6][12]

For catalysts, the main watchpoint is whether the current warm spell persists through midday and early afternoon, when Paris often reaches its maximum. AccuWeather has already flagged an **Extreme High Temperature** warning for Paris and forecasts around **91°F/33°C** on 11 August, which supports the idea that the distribution is skewed towards the low-to-mid 30s rather than the upper 20s.[13] If cloud cover, a wind shift, or earlier convective activity develops, the outcome can slide quickly back towards the lower bands; if skies stay clear, the Daily Observations peak is more likely to test the market’s leading 32°C–33°C outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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