Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 15 August 2026, with the market currently pricing a 1% probability that this peak will fall into the upper temperature range specified. The resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, creating a precise measurement standard that eliminates ambiguity from rounded or averaged data.

August temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget historically cluster in the 24–28°C range for daily highs, with extremes rare but documented. The station's 30-year climate data shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur in roughly 15–20% of August days, whilst readings above 32°C are infrequent enough to represent genuine outlier conditions. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper threshold to sit well above typical August performance, making historical precedent a critical reference point for calibrating expectations against the specific range boundaries.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-August 2026, particularly any heat dome or high-pressure system predictions from Météo-France or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Heatwave conditions across continental Europe would be the primary catalyst shifting probabilities upward. The resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 August, meaning forecasts issued 5–7 days prior will carry the most predictive weight. Any anomalous warming patterns reported in late July or early August would warrant reassessment of current pricing.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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