Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s highest temperature on 3 August is a straight weather call, not a narrative one: the key question is whether the day at Le Bourget peaks in the mid-30s Celsius or slips back towards a more typical August maximum. The market is currently pricing that as an extreme long shot, with only 1% assigned to a YES outcome, which implies traders see the settlement band as very unlikely to capture the day’s top reading.

The historical frame is the recent European heatwave, which pushed Paris close to 41°C in late June and produced a sequence of record-breaking readings across France, including 44.3°C in Pissos and 40.9°C in Paris itself.[8][11][15] By contrast, long-run August climate norms for Paris are much lower, with seasonal guidance centring on the mid-20s Celsius rather than anything near the June extremes.[1][10][17] That makes the current price intelligible: it is consistent with a market expecting a hot day, but not another record-grade surge.

Traders should watch the latest short-range guidance from Météo-France and the broader European ensembles, because the market’s own reference commentary points to a narrow spread around 34–36°C and only modest cooling risk if Atlantic moisture arrives earlier than forecast.[2] Any shift in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, or southerly flow over Île-de-France could move the eventual high by a degree or two, which is material when settlement depends on the single highest reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.