Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing a severe heatwave as Meteo France maintains red alerts across 54 departments, with temperatures persisting around the clock and the national thermal indicator recently hitting record highs [9]. This extreme weather pattern frames the 0% crowd-implied probability for any significant temperature spike on 13 July 2026, suggesting traders view the date as unlikely to breach historical extremes despite the active summer conditions.

Historical data for Paris in July shows daily highs typically range between 23°C and 25°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, while the city’s absolute record stands at 42.4°C recorded on 25 July 2019 [1][3]. The current heatwave has pushed southern France to 45.9°C, the hottest day in French history, yet Paris-Le Bourget has not matched these southern extremes in recent years, with the highest temperature in the last 15 days reaching only 36.7°C [2][6].

Traders should monitor daily Meteo France bulletins and Wunderground updates for the Paris-Le Bourget station, as the settlement depends strictly on the highest temperature recorded at that specific airport on 13 July [9]. Any sudden escalation in the red alert status or a shift in wind patterns from the south could act as a catalyst, though the current trajectory suggests temperatures will remain within the typical July band rather than approaching record-breaking levels [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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