Highest temperature in Paris on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing a severe heatwave, with forecasts predicting peak temperatures near 36°C on Tuesday and values around 35°C on Wednesday during the 6–12 July period[1]. This extreme weather aligns with a powerful new heat dome expected to impact France in early July 2026, where northern regions like Paris may see highs between 35°C and 38°C[3]. Historical data from the 2026 European heatwaves shows similar intensity, with temperatures reaching 35.1°C in nearby Surrey on 9 July, suggesting that a 0% implied probability for high temperatures is likely a market mispricing given the current atmospheric conditions[4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Meteo France, which has issued red heat wave alerts for 54 departments as high temperatures persist around the clock[6]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, so any sudden cloud cover or wind shifts before the 12:00 UTC cutoff on 9 July could alter the final reading[2]. With nighttime temperatures staying above 25°C and little chance to cool down, the cumulative heat stress indicates that the market’s current dismissal of high temperatures contradicts the prevailing meteorological trend[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.