Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will experience weather on 2 June 2026, with the highest temperature at Le Bourget Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently implies zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or expectation of unusually cool conditions for early June in the Île-de-France region.

Historical data from Le Bourget shows June temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during heat waves. The 0% probability across all ranges is anomalous given climatological norms; early June in Paris rarely fails to reach at least 15°C even in cool years. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records for that specific station, which maintains consistent measurement protocols. Traders should note that Le Bourget, located north-east of central Paris, occasionally records slightly lower maxima than central urban stations due to its position and exposure.

The key variable affecting June 2026 temperatures remains atmospheric patterns in late May and early June, which cannot be reliably forecast beyond two weeks. Traders should monitor European weather models as the settlement window approaches, particularly tracking high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather fronts that could influence the Île-de-France region. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 2 June, meaning intraday temperature fluctuations matter; afternoon peaks typically exceed morning readings by 5–10°C in June.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.