Highest temperature in Paris on May 22?

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Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is due to set the day’s high temperature for 22 May, with the settlement window ending at noon UTC and the market currently implying virtually no chance of a very hot outcome. That looks conservative against the local climatology: Paris typically warms through May, with average highs around 20-21°C, but the month still produces plenty of days in the mid-to-high teens rather than anything extreme. The recent public market on 21 May closed around the mid-20s, and Paris weather data show that low-30s May readings are possible but uncommon.

For context, historical May highs in Paris usually sit well below the month’s upper tail, though brief spikes do occur when sunshine and a southerly airflow line up. WeatherSpark’s Paris data puts typical May highs in a 63-69°F range, with only occasional excursions towards 79°F, while broader station records cited in travel weather summaries show that the city can briefly reach the low 30s Celsius. That means traders should read a 0% crowd price as a statement about the day’s expected distribution, not as an assertion that a warm May afternoon is impossible.

The main catalysts are the overnight and morning forecast updates for north-central France, especially the position of any weak front, cloud cover and wind direction over the Île-de-France region. Because resolution is tied to the Paris-Le Bourget station and the cutoff is at noon UTC, early-morning warmth matters more than late-afternoon heating elsewhere in the city. Any last-minute adjustment in forecast guidance from the Met Office, Météo-France or Wunderground’s daily history page will be the key dependency to watch before the market closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.