Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station will record the highest temperature reached on 23 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical data archived on Weather Underground. This specific date falls in late spring, when Paris typically transitions toward early summer conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final temperature reading must be confirmed through the archive before resolution occurs.

May temperatures at Le Bourget historically range between 12°C and 27°C, with an average high near 20°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold being tested or expect cooler-than-average conditions. Historical May records show occasional warm spells pushing toward 28–30°C, though such extremes occur infrequently. Comparable spring weather patterns from recent years indicate variability driven by Atlantic weather systems and early continental warming.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the European weather forecast issued in the days immediately preceding 23 May 2026. Traders should monitor extended-range forecasts from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as the settlement date approaches, as these will indicate whether high-pressure systems or cooler Atlantic fronts dominate the region. Any significant heat advisory or unseasonable warming pattern announced in mid-May could shift market expectations. The actual recorded temperature depends entirely on atmospheric conditions that day—no scheduled events or announcements directly influence the outcome beyond standard meteorological forecasting.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.