Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 25 May 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Historical May temperatures at this station show considerable variability; the long-term average high for late May sits around 20°C, though readings regularly exceed 25°C during warm spells and occasionally reach 30°C or above during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about how to price a weather outcome months in advance or are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

May weather in the Île-de-France region typically transitions from spring conditions toward early summer patterns. Comparable years reveal that late-May temperatures depend heavily on Atlantic pressure systems and the positioning of high-pressure cells over continental Europe. The 2003 heat wave, whilst extreme, demonstrated that May can occasionally produce readings well above 30°C, though such events remain statistically uncommon for this specific date. Recent decades show increasing frequency of warm May days, with several years since 2010 recording highs above 28°C.

Traders should monitor European seasonal forecasts released by Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as May 2026 approaches. The North Atlantic Oscillation index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic will influence whether high-pressure systems dominate or Atlantic lows bring cooler, wetter conditions. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date, making early positioning speculative until late May forecasts solidify.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.