Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 May 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Historical data from the station shows that late May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 18–24°C, with occasional peaks reaching 26–28°C during warmer years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or are waiting for seasonal forecasts to clarify expected conditions.

May weather patterns in the Île-de-France region depend heavily on Atlantic pressure systems and the transition toward summer conditions. Over the past decade, late May has seen considerable variability: some years deliver cool, unsettled weather with highs around 16–19°C, whilst others experience early heat waves pushing temperatures above 28°C. The Paris-Le Bourget station, located north of the city centre, typically records slightly cooler readings than central Paris due to its proximity to open terrain.

Traders should monitor medium-range forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, as these will provide the first reliable indication of whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic lows will dominate the region. Seasonal outlooks from Météo-France, published monthly, offer context for whether spring 2026 is tracking warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. The settlement window closes at noon UTC, meaning the final recorded high will reflect morning and early-afternoon temperatures only, potentially affecting outcomes if afternoon peaks occur after the cutoff.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.