Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full day's temperature data from the station will be available through the morning of 1 June before resolution.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable variability. The station's records indicate that late May highs typically range between 18°C and 24°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 28–30°C during heatwave conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall within a baseline range, likely reflecting typical late-spring conditions rather than anomalous heat. Comparable European weather patterns from previous years show that late May in the Paris region rarely produces sustained extreme temperatures, though individual days can deviate significantly from seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-May onwards, particularly from Météo-France and international models tracking high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive temperatures upward. Any significant heatwave warnings issued in the weeks preceding 31 May would shift probability distributions materially. Additionally, the specific resolution methodology—using Wunderground's historical data for Le Bourget specifically—means local microclimatic factors at the airport station matter; urban heat effects differ from surrounding areas. Confirmation of the exact temperature range brackets available for this market will clarify which thresholds traders are actually pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.