Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

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Market context

San Francisco International Airport’s reading on 10 August is the settlement point here, and the relevant question is how high the thermometer got during the day rather than what the summary panel may have shown at a glance. Early- to mid-August in San Francisco is usually mild, with the airport’s climate normals for 10 August putting the maximum temperature at 73°F, while recent 2026 observations around the city have mostly sat in the high 50s to low 70s rather than near heat-wave territory.[4][15][12]

That makes a **0% YES** price understandable if the contract’s target range is materially above the ordinary August band, because the airport has a strong record of staying below that sort of threshold absent a warm offshore wind event. Comparable recent data also point to a cool pattern: Weather Underground’s San Francisco history page shows an actual high of 59°F in one August sample, while the National Weather Service reported a maximum of 71°F and a minimum of 57°F for the previous day at KSFO, both well short of extreme outcomes.[3][4]

The main catalysts to watch are the final KSFO observations on Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table and any late-day shift in marine layer or wind direction, since those can move airport temperatures a few degrees even when the broader city feels unchanged. If the day stays cloudy and onshore, the ceiling on the high is usually limited; if skies clear earlier than expected, the airport can climb into the low or mid-70s, which is closer to the climatological norm but still not usually enough to rescue a very high range.[1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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