Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July 12 high temperature hinges on whether marine fog persists or a heat surge breaks the typical coastal moderation. The market’s 0% YES probability for any extreme outcome aligns with climatology: July highs at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) average 67–71°F, rarely exceeding 79°F [1][2]. Historical data shows July 12 specifically has recorded 71°F in recent years, with the all-time July record at KSFO being 87°F during a 2013 Bay Area heat wave [3]. Even the 2021 record-low maximum of 57°F on this date underscores the city’s volatility, but such extremes remain outliers against the 70°F norm [10].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Bay Area forecasts for fire-weather warnings or offshore flow shifts, which could trigger rapid warming. A key dependency is the timing of fog clearance; if the marine layer fails to form by midday, temperatures could breach 75°F, though current models suggest continued fog [1]. Recent heat waves in the region, such as the 2013 event that hit 87°F at KSFO, demonstrate the potential for sudden spikes, but these are typically driven by sustained offshore winds rather than isolated days [3]. Watch for announcements from the NWS regarding wind patterns and any updates to the Wunderground daily history for KSFO, the official resolution source [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.