Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport is expected to face typical July conditions tomorrow, where daily highs cluster around 70°F and rarely exceed 79°F, making a record-breaking heat spike statistically improbable [1]. The current 6% YES probability implies the market anticipates temperatures staying within the standard band, as historical data shows July highs falling below 64°F or exceeding 79°F only in rare outliers [1]. While the Bay Area experienced a notable heat wave recently with the airport hitting 87°F, such extremes are anomalies rather than norms for mid-July, with the all-time record for the station sitting at 93°F [2][9]. Traders should note that even the third-hottest week in 150 years for the city only produced a high of 73°F, reinforcing the difficulty of surpassing the threshold required for a YES resolution [7].

The primary catalyst for any deviation from this baseline is the arrival of an inland heat dome, which would need to push temperatures significantly above the 79°F ceiling to challenge the current odds [1]. Watch the National Weather Service forecasts for the KSFO station overnight, as any mention of a "heat advisory" or sustained high-pressure ridge moving from the Central Valley would be the necessary trigger for a temperature spike [8]. Recent historical patterns indicate that even during intense regional heat events, the airport’s proximity to the Pacific Ocean acts as a thermal buffer, often capping highs well below triple digits seen in inland locations like Healdsburg [3]. Without a confirmed forecast of a major ridge by morning, the probability of exceeding the implied threshold remains low, consistent with the 6% market pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.