Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the San Francisco International Airport will record its highest temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. Current observations show a high near 67°F with sunny intervals and a fresh westerly breeze, aligning with ensemble guidance pointing to a range of 66–69°F[1][4]. This factual baseline explains why the crowd-implied probability for higher temperature ranges sits at 0%, as conditions remain firmly within the lower historical band.

Historically, daily highs in June at KSFO typically rise from 68°F to 71°F, rarely exceeding 80°F or falling below 61°F[2]. The first half of summer 2026 has been notably cool, marking the coldest period since 1965 with an average maximum of just 67.6°F through mid-July[5]. These comparable cases frame the current probability as rational, given the persistent cooling trend and the station’s climate normals, which set the record maximum at 92°F in 1996 but the typical high at 73°F[7][9].

Traders should monitor the Wunderground resolution source for the official daily high, as this is the definitive settlement data[1]. Key dependencies include any sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover that could push temperatures above the 70°F threshold, though current forecasts for July 2026 suggest highs will range between 67°F and 83°F[8]. No major announcements or coaching changes apply here, but the weather service’s climatological report confirms the typical maximum remains 73°F, reinforcing the low probability of extreme heat[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.