Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is expected to record a high temperature on 16 July 2026 that falls within the moderate summer range typical for the region, with historical data and current forecasts pointing to values between 64°F and 67°F. The market’s 0% probability for a YES outcome likely reflects a misunderstanding of the binary structure, as the actual resolution depends on which temperature bracket contains the day’s peak reading, not a simple yes/no condition.

Historical July highs at KSEA usually cluster between 60°F and 75°F, with 64–65°F being the most frequent outcome in recent years. This aligns with the current frontrunner in the market, where 64–65°F holds a 68% implied probability, followed by 66–67°F at 19% [1]. The 0% YES figure appears inconsistent with this distribution and may stem from a mislabelled or incorrectly configured binary option in the interface.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for KSEA on 16 July, as the official resolution source is the highest temperature recorded for that station on that date [1]. Weather forecasts for Seattle in July 2026 suggest daytime highs near 26°C (79°F), though airport readings often run cooler due to coastal influence [2]. Any sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could alter the peak temperature, making real-time monitoring essential before the settlement window closes at 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.