Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s hottest reading on 23 July 2026 will be the settlement point, and the current 0% yes price implies the market is treating an extreme outcome as very unlikely. In late July, Seattle’s climate is usually warm but not hot by inland standards: typical highs are around 75°F, with July rain rare and daylight still long.[1]

That makes the market mostly a question of whether a brief warm spell can push the airport’s daily maximum well above normal rather than whether July can be warm at all. Historical context argues for restraint in pricing very high extremes: even in a dry, high-sun month, Seattle’s average conditions cluster in the 70s, so a strong move into the 80s generally needs a specific heat driver rather than background seasonality.[1]

The key catalysts are short-range temperature forecasts, any heat advisories or marine-layer changes affecting the Puget Sound corridor, and whether the regional pattern turns unusually dry and stable before the settlement window closes. Airport readings can differ from broader city forecasts, so traders typically watch the Sea-Tac station specifically rather than Seattle proper; the NOAA time-series page confirms KSEA as the relevant observing site for checking conditions as the date approaches.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.