Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 24 May 2026 will determine which temperature range resolves this market. Historical May data from the station shows typical highs in the mid-60s Fahrenheit, with occasional warm spells pushing into the low 70s. The airport's maritime location moderates extremes; readings above 80°F in late May are uncommon but not unprecedented, occurring roughly once every five to ten years during early heat events.

Seattle's late-May weather patterns depend heavily on upper-level atmospheric positioning and whether Pacific systems remain influential or high-pressure ridging develops inland. The current 0% crowd probability on elevated ranges suggests traders are anchoring to climatological norms rather than accounting for the full distribution of possible outcomes. Comparable years—such as 2015, when Seattle recorded 79°F on 24 May—demonstrate that warm scenarios do materialise, particularly when ridge-building begins earlier than typical.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 24 May 2026, as these will clarify whether any anomalous warmth is expected. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift probabilities; neutral or warm Pacific phases historically favour warmer-than-average late springs in the Pacific Northwest. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, allowing only morning forecasts to influence final trading before Wunderground's historical data becomes the binding resolution source.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.