Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August typically sits within the hottest period of the year, with Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—recording daily highs consistently in the 29–33°C range during this fortnight. The city experiences monsoon influence and high humidity at this time, though the exact peak temperature depends on whether a typhoon system or high-pressure ridge dominates the region's atmospheric pattern.

Historical August data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 34.2°C on 12 August 2018 and 31.8°C on the same date in 2019, whilst 2020 saw 30.1°C. This spread reflects how sensitive late-summer Seoul temperatures are to synoptic-scale weather systems rather than seasonal norms alone. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool pattern or uncertainty about the specific resolution mechanics tied to Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from late July onwards, as typhoons tracking near or through the Korean Peninsula can suppress temperatures significantly. The Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration typically issue extended outlooks by early August. Additionally, the precise settlement window—ending at 12:00 UTC on 12 August—means only temperatures recorded up to that point count, potentially excluding afternoon peaks if the market resolves before local evening heating concludes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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