Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's August weather is characterised by intense summer heat and high humidity. Historical data from Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for this market, shows that mid-August temperatures typically peak between 28–32°C, though readings occasionally exceed 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the highest temperature on 13 August 2026 to fall below the lowest threshold offered, which warrants scrutiny against seasonal norms.

Incheon's August climate is shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon and occasional typhoon systems. Over the past decade, mid-August highs have ranged from 26°C during cooler years to 35°C during exceptional heat events. The 2018 heat wave pushed temperatures above 34°C across multiple days in August, whilst 2020 saw more moderate peaks around 29–30°C. Understanding this variability is essential: a 0% probability implies confidence that conditions will be unusually cool, a position that contradicts typical August behaviour in the region.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in late July and early August, which will provide the first reliable indication of pressure systems and monsoon intensity for that specific week. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks in advance. Additionally, any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems typically bring heat and humidity rather than cool conditions. Real-time atmospheric patterns in the week preceding 13 August will be the primary driver of settlement outcomes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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