Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August typically sits at the peak of the Korean summer monsoon season, with daily highs regularly exceeding 30°C. The Incheon International Airport meteorological station, which serves as the official observation point for this market, recorded a high of 33.2°C on 17 August 2023 and 32.8°C on the same date in 2022, placing both years in the upper-middle range of historical August temperatures for the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature ranges or expect conditions notably cooler than recent precedent.

August 2026 forecasting depends on broader atmospheric patterns that typically emerge two to three months prior. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity, Pacific typhoon activity, and any anomalous heat domes across Northeast Asia will determine whether temperatures track towards the 33–35°C range observed in recent years or dip below 30°C. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in June, which would provide the first substantive signal for traders. Additionally, any tropical cyclone activity in late July or early August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, a factor worth monitoring through late July 2026 forecasts.

The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical resolution dependency. Traders should verify the exact data source and any historical discrepancies between Incheon Airport's official KMA readings and Weather Underground's recorded figures before committing capital, as measurement timing or station calibration differences could affect which temperature range ultimately resolves.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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