Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August typically sits in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, with the monsoon season (jangma) having usually concluded by late summer. August 19th falls within the hottest period of the Korean year, when afternoon highs frequently exceed 30°C, though the exact daily maximum depends on atmospheric pressure systems, cloud cover, and any residual moisture from tropical systems tracking northward from the Pacific.

Historical records from Incheon International Airport show considerable year-to-year variation for this date. Between 2010 and 2023, August 19th highs ranged from 26.5°C to 33.8°C, with roughly half of those years recording temperatures above 31°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting the likelihood of extreme heat or the market's upper temperature brackets are set at thresholds rarely achieved on this specific date. Seoul's urban heat island effect can push Incheon readings 1–2°C higher than surrounding rural areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating boundary conditions between resolution ranges.

The key variable for August 2026 will be the position and strength of the North Pacific high-pressure system during that week. Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific that could redirect moisture patterns northward. Korea Meteorological Administration updates and Wunderground's historical station data at Incheon will be critical; the market's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures means traders must verify which specific measurement window the resolution source uses.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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