Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

A severe heat warning is in force for parts of the Seoul metropolitan area, and forecasts for 4 August point to highs around 37-38°C in the capital region, with Incheon also near 37°C. SBS reports Seoul could reach 38°C, while Asiae’s forecast puts Incheon at 37°C and says any afternoon showers are unlikely to cool conditions materially.[1][3][4]

That backdrop makes the market’s 0% YES price look hard to square with the weather setup: August is normally one of Seoul’s hottest periods, and the city’s early-August climatology is already near peak summer heat. WeatherSpark notes 4 August is typically the hottest day of the year in Seoul, with typical highs in the mid-30s Celsius, while Holiday Weather lists an August record high of 38.2°C, showing that very hot outcomes are not unusual enough to dismiss outright.[13][16]

For traders, the key catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak and whether cloud, rain or sea-breeze effects shave a degree or two off the airport reading. KMA-linked alerts started at 11:00 local time, and both SBS and Asiae indicate the heatwave should persist through the day even with scattered showers later on.[1][3][4] The decisive variable is the highest reading logged at Incheon Intl Airport Station before the settlement window closes, not the feel-like temperature or the broader Seoul city forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.