Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon Airport’s high temperature on 5 August is likely to sit in the high 30s Celsius, with the Seoul metropolitan area under a severe heat-wave warning and a forecast daytime high of 38°C in Seoul itself.[1] For this market, the key point is that the resolution is based on the highest reading at Incheon Intl Airport Station, not central Seoul, so the exact outcome depends on how much the airport warms relative to the city core.[1]

The current 0% yes-implied price looks conservative against both the day’s forecast and August climatology. Seoul’s August highs normally sit around 28–31°C, but the monthly record high for August is 38.2°C, showing that very hot outcomes are plausible in early August when heat peaks.[15][18][19] Comparable forecasts for today also cluster around the low-to-mid 30s for Seoul, with some services showing 33°C and others 38°C, which suggests a broad but still very hot range rather than anything near cool conditions.[3][4][11]

Traders should watch the morning and midday observations, any updated Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance, and whether showers or cloud cover reach the western metro area, since that could trim the airport’s peak temperature.[1][5] The strongest upside catalyst is the ongoing heat-wave setup; the main downside catalyst is any coastal breeze, cloud build-up, or rain band that keeps Incheon below the inland Seoul forecast.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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