Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul will experience its peak daily heat on 11 July 2026 at the Incheon International Airport station, the official benchmark for this market’s resolution. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically range between 27°C and 32°C, with humidity amplifying the perceived heat even when temperatures stay below extreme thresholds [1][3]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range being bet on, likely because recent forecasts project highs near 28–30°C rather than the extreme outliers seen in past heatwaves [2].

Comparable cases include the 2018 heatwave when Seoul hit 39.6°C and the 2025 event where temperatures approached 40°C, though such extremes are rare and usually tied to prolonged monsoon breaks [5]. South Korea recorded its second-hottest July since 1973 in 2025, averaging 27.1°C, indicating a warming trend but not guaranteeing record-breaking daily peaks [7]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave alerts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Incheon station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall during the monsoon season can suppress temperatures significantly [5][9]. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here—this is purely a weather-dependent event with settlement locked at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.