Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as July 12, 2026, arrives with the Incheon International Airport Station set to record the day’s maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently implies a 0% chance of any specific outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the defined resolution ranges or that the event is too uncertain to price meaningfully.

Historical data frames extreme caution: July in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 29°C and 32°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, though recent years have shattered norms. In early July 2025, Seoul hit 37.7°C, the highest early-July temperature in 117 years, while the city recorded 22 consecutive “tropical nights” above 25°C later that month, breaking a century-old record [1][8]. South Korea’s all-time heat record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon in 2025, indicating regional volatility [2]. These outliers suggest that while 33°C+ is plausible, the 0% probability may reflect misaligned range definitions rather than low heat expectations.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Incheon station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on July 12, with no forecast announcements expected before then [10]. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily bulletins and local radar feeds for rain or cloud cover could act as immediate catalysts, as precipitation often suppresses peak temperatures. Given the trend of record-breaking summers, including South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973 in 2025, the absence of priced probability warrants scrutiny of the market’s range structure rather than dismissal of heat risk [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.