Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is experiencing an intense heatwave as traders assess the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures on 13 July 2026. Historical data shows early July in the city has recently surged, with temperatures reaching 37.8°C in a single day—the hottest early July in 117 years of records [1][6]. The nation’s second-hottest July overall occurred in 2025, averaging 27.1°C nationwide, while the all-time peak for South Korea hit 41.0°C in Hongcheon in recent years [3][4]. Despite this trend, the current crowd-implied probability of a specific high-temperature outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects conditions to fall below the resolution threshold or that the specific range is deemed unlikely given typical July variability where highs rarely exceed 91°F (32.8°C) [5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon International Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as tropical nights with overnight temperatures above 25°C have persisted for 22 consecutive days, breaking century-old records [2]. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily bulletins will be critical, particularly if cloud cover or precipitation patterns shift, as July is also Seoul’s wettest month with 414.4mm of average rainfall [10]. Any sudden announcements regarding heat advisories or extreme weather warnings from local authorities could act as immediate catalysts, given the recent streak of super-hot conditions that have already pushed Seoul to 37.7°C in early July [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.