Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is about to experience its mid-summer peak, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders expect an unusually cool or data-absent outcome, yet historical July highs in the region typically exceed 30°C.

Historical data from Wunderground shows that July 15 in Seoul has frequently seen temperatures between 31°C and 35°C over the past decade, with the 2023 peak reaching 36.2°C at the same station. The 0% probability is therefore anomalous unless traders anticipate a significant cold front, unrecorded data, or a resolution failure due to missing station reports. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2021 confirm that extreme heat is the norm, making the current pricing a potential outlier unless a specific weather disruption is forecast.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast for any sudden cold fronts or typhoon approaches that could suppress temperatures below 30°C. A key dependency is the timely upload of Incheon Airport data to Wunderground before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026. Any delay or gap in the station’s reporting could prevent resolution, which may explain the market’s current pricing. Check the latest weather bulletins from Yonhap News for real-time updates on Seoul’s mid-July conditions.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.