Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul will record its peak daytime heat on 17 July 2026 at the Incheon International Airport station, with the market now pricing a 31°C outcome at 76% probability. The current 0% YES crowd-implied probability for the binary “highest temperature” question appears to reflect a mismatch in how the market is framed, as the underlying event is a specific temperature range rather than a simple yes/no condition.

Historical July highs in Seoul typically cluster between 30°C and 33°C, with 31°C being the most frequent peak in recent decades. Comparable cases from 2020–2025 show that when mid-July heatwaves occur, 31°C is the median high, while extremes above 33°C are rare and usually tied to prolonged stagnation of the Pacific high-pressure system. The 76% weighting on 31°C aligns with this pattern, suggesting the market expects a standard summer day rather than an outlier event.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast updates and Wunderground’s real-time station data for RKSI, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the peak by 1–2°C. A beat-reporter from Yonhap News noted that early July 2026 has seen weaker monsoon activity than usual, increasing the likelihood of clear skies and higher daytime temperatures [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so any late-morning heat spike will be decisive.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.