Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 24 July**, with settlement based on the Wunderground daily history page for that station. Current pricing implies a **0% YES** chance, which is unusually low for a late-July weather contract and suggests the market is either misreading the exact settlement source or treating the specific temperature band as effectively out of reach.

Seasonally, late July in South Korea is normally hot, humid and still prone to heavy rain, but the ceiling can vary sharply under monsoon cloud and showers. July in Seoul is typically associated with highs around 30°C and frequent rainfall, while official local coverage has recently described the end of the monsoon period and a shift towards stronger heat, with daytime highs forecast at 28–38°C across the country and 20–60 mm of rain still expected for the Seoul–Incheon area on the 24th. That combination means the market should be read less as a pure heat bet and more as a contest between cloud/rain suppression and any late-day clearing.

For traders, the main catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration updates, the timing and persistence of rain bands over the capital region, and whether afternoon breaks in cloud allow the station to briefly spike. Incheon’s airport setting can also run a little differently from inner Seoul because of coastal influence and local wind; the crucial dependency is whether showers linger through the midday to early afternoon window when the daily maximum is usually set. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, the relevant local hours are still the core daytime heating period, so any forecast shift in rainfall intensity or cloud cover can move the upper temperature band materially.

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Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.