Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the monsoon season (jangma) typically concluding by late June. Historical records from Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for the Seoul metropolitan area, show July temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs frequently reaching 32–35°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the settlement range to exclude the most likely outcome, indicating either a misalignment between available options or uncertainty about which temperature bracket the market has defined.

Comparable July conditions at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade has seen July 28 highs ranging from approximately 28°C to 34°C depending on monsoon timing and atmospheric patterns. Cooler outcomes occur when remnant moisture from the rainy season suppresses daytime peaks; warmer outcomes emerge when high-pressure systems dominate. The current 0% reading suggests the crowd may be concentrated on a single temperature band, leaving other plausible ranges unpriced.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week prior to settlement, which typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks for Seoul. Typhoon activity in the western Pacific during late July could substantially alter conditions—early-season systems occasionally bring cloud cover and precipitation that depress maximum temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 28 July, meaning traders have real-time temperature data available until the official Wunderground record is finalised.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.