Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is in the middle of an intense late-July heatwave, and the market’s 0% crowd price implies traders are treating a fresh extreme as highly unlikely even though the city has already been running well above seasonal norms. Official reporting on 31 July said Seoul had just logged 22 consecutive tropical nights in July, a century-long record, with overnight lows still extraordinarily high at 29.3°C the previous night.[1][6]

That context matters because Seoul has a history of sharp late-summer spikes once a heat dome sets in: the city has twice pushed to 38.3°C or higher in modern records, and the absolute July record is 38.4°C, while nearby stations have also produced very hot readings in comparable spells.[2][14][18] Recent summers underline the volatility as well, with Seoul hitting 38.0°C in late July 2025 and a July high of 35.8°C in 2023, so a forecasted heat surge can still move the distribution materially even when the current implied probability is flat.[13][5]

The main catalysts are the official forecast updates and any change in the prevailing heatwave pattern, especially cloud cover, rain bands, or a shift in wind direction before the settlement cut-off. At 6 a.m. UTC, traders should watch whether the Korea Meteorological Administration maintains warnings into the afternoon and whether temperatures at Incheon International Airport track closer to the hotter inland readings seen elsewhere in Korea, because that airport-specific figure is the settlement reference rather than downtown Seoul.[1][10][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.