Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 14 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, the official weather observation point for the metropolitan area. Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with daily highs ranging between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates official Korean Meteorological Administration data.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in mid-June ranged from 22°C to 31°C, with an average around 26–27°C. Notably, 2018 and 2023 saw heat waves that drove temperatures above 30°C in early-to-mid June, whilst cooler years like 2019 remained in the low-to-mid 20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of temperatures within a specific range, likely the most common historical bracket.

The primary catalyst affecting this outcome is the East Asian summer monsoon's timing and intensity in 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration released in May, which typically provide 30-day outlooks for temperature anomalies. Additionally, the North Pacific high-pressure system's position in early June will determine whether subtropical heat advection reaches the Korean peninsula. Real-time weather forecasts become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date, making early-season climate patterns the key variable for longer-term positioning.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.