Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 15 June 2026 will determine this market's resolution. Seoul's climate in mid-June sits firmly within the early monsoon season, with humidity levels typically between 60–75% and afternoon highs clustering around 26–28°C, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during atypical heat events.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows considerable year-to-year variation for mid-June temperatures. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest recorded temperatures on or near 15 June ranged from 23°C to 31°C, with most years settling in the 26–29°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the temperature will fall below the lowest threshold offered, though this conflicts with the station's ten-year average for this date, which hovers near 27°C. Anomalously cool patterns—driven by early monsoon onset or northerly air masses—remain possible but historically occur in roughly one year per decade during this window.

Monitoring the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from early June will provide the clearest signal. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May can suppress temperatures significantly if systems track northward, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Korean peninsula typically drive readings toward the upper end of the historical range. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and atmospheric pressure patterns established by early June will largely determine whether 15 June experiences typical seasonal warmth or an outlier cool spell.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.