Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 17 June 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Seoul's climate in mid-June sits firmly in early summer, with the region transitioning into the monsoon season that typically arrives in late June or early July.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows June temperatures consistently range between 24–30°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 32°C before the peak summer months of July and August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the settlement threshold to fall outside the typical range for this date, or reflect uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be recorded. Comparable June 17 readings from prior years provide the most reliable baseline: the Korea Meteorological Administration's records indicate mid-June highs cluster around 26–28°C under normal conditions, though occasional warm spells can push readings toward 31–32°C.

The key variable affecting June 17, 2026 will be the position of high-pressure systems moving across East Asia and the timing of early monsoon moisture. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks leading up to mid-June, as these typically signal whether the region will experience above or below-average temperatures. Any significant heat dome affecting the Korean peninsula in early June would shift expectations upward, whilst early monsoon onset would suppress temperatures and increase cloud cover.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.