Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 21 June, which will be taken from Wunderground’s daily history page for the station. June in Seoul is typically warm rather than extreme, with daytime temperatures often in the 19–28°C range, while AccuWeather’s June outlook for Seoul suggests highs can run higher, roughly 81–91°F, depending on the year and day[1][3].

A **0% YES** price implies the market is effectively discounting any outcome in the relevant settlement band, so the useful frame is historical comparables rather than the headline probability. June is also the transition into Korea’s rainy season, with rising humidity and the chance of showers later in the month, which can cap highs on some days even when the broader seasonal trend is warmer[1][2][7]. KMA’s own short-range forecasting language defines the daytime high as the maximum recorded from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., underlining that intraday timing matters for the resolved value[4].

For traders, the main catalysts are the local forecast cycle, humidity, cloud cover and any rain band passing through north-western Seoul, all of which can move the day’s maximum by several degrees. KMA’s public weather page shows current conditions and short-range updates for Seoul, so late shifts in precipitation probability or maximum temperature are the key dependency to watch before the settlement window closes[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.