Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Market context

The relevant event is the day’s *top recorded temperature* at Incheon International Airport Station, with settlement based on the highest reading shown by Wunderground for 22 June 2026. June in Seoul and the wider capital area is usually warm but not yet at peak summer intensity: average highs rise through the month from about 25°C to 27°C, and daily highs rarely push much beyond the high 20s under normal conditions.[1]

A 0% crowd-implied chance for the YES side looks extreme against the climatology, because late-June warmth in the Seoul-Incheon corridor is common enough that a reading in the 20s is the default, not an outlier.[1] The broader Korean temperature record also points to a warming backdrop, with recent summers repeatedly producing new extremes and South Korea identified as having experienced record-breaking heat in 2024.[2][3] That does not guarantee a scorching day at Incheon, but it does make very low implied probabilities harder to reconcile with seasonal norms.

For traders, the main catalysts are the same-day synoptic set-up and any official guidance on heat, humidity, cloud cover and rainfall from the Korean Meteorological Administration, because coastal airport readings are sensitive to sea breeze and maritime moderation. A wet or overcast morning can cap the daily maximum, while a clear, humid afternoon can lift it sharply; the Wunderground settlement source will only care about the single highest temperature logged at the station before the window closes.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.