Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A sweltering heat wave is currently gripping South Korea, shattering June temperature records across 59 of the nation’s 97 weather stations and pushing daily averages to unprecedented highs in cities like Busan, Daegu, and Mokpo[1]. This extreme weather event has already broken multiple June records, with Seoul’s daily average hitting 28.2°C on Monday, the fifth-highest figure for the month on record, while the capital’s absolute peak remains 29.4°C set last year[2]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range suggests traders are betting against an extreme outlier, yet the historical context of recent record-breaking days indicates that June 2026 is far from typical, with daily highs in Seoul typically climbing from 77°F to 81°F but rarely exceeding 87°F[3].

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily bulletins for any sudden spikes in the Incheon International Airport Station data, as the heat wave has already driven temperatures to 41.0°C in Hongcheon, a town in the Gangwon province[4]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on June 26, meaning the final resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that specific day, with forecasts suggesting daily highs in Seoul ranging between 84°F and 92°F for June 2026[6]. Recent data confirms that the highest temperature recorded in Seoul during this period was 91°F on June 19, 2026, indicating that temperatures are already hovering near the upper limits of the seasonal average, making any further surge a critical catalyst for market movement[8]. The dependency on Wunderground’s official daily record means that even a marginal increase above the 91°F benchmark could shift the probability distribution significantly, as the market has not yet accounted for the full intensity of this ongoing heat event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.