Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 4 June 2026 will determine this market's resolution. Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with daily highs commonly between 24–28°C, though variation depends on weather systems moving across the Korean Peninsula during that specific week.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows June temperatures rarely exceed 30°C in the opening days of the month, with such peaks more typical of mid-to-late June or July. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a threshold outcome unlikely to occur based on seasonal norms. Comparable early-June periods at this station have produced highs in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, with extremes above 32°C exceptionally rare before mid-month. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 4 June, meaning the market resolves based on the full calendar day's maximum temperature recorded at the airport weather station.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts as June approaches, particularly tracking any anomalous heat systems or high-pressure ridges that might push temperatures above seasonal expectations. The specific threshold bands available in this market will clarify which temperature ranges carry meaningful probability; current crowd positioning suggests confidence in lower-end outcomes. Real-time weather data from Wunderground's historical records provides the definitive source, accessible throughout the settlement period.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.