Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution. Seoul's late May weather typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with daily highs averaging 24–26°C, though variation depends on prevailing wind patterns and any early monsoon influence from the Pacific.

Historical records from Incheon show that May 25 temperatures have ranged from 16°C to 31°C over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the available temperature bands or expect a notably cool day relative to seasonal norms. Comparable late-May periods in Seoul have produced highs above 28°C in roughly four out of every ten years, indicating that warmer outcomes remain plausible despite current market sentiment.

The key variable affecting May 25 conditions will be the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early-season moisture from tropical systems. Weather forecasts become reliable only 7–10 days before the date, so traders should monitor meteorological updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as mid-May approaches. Any significant shift in the jet stream or early arrival of warm air masses from the south could materially alter temperature expectations. Settlement relies on Wunderground's historical data from Incheon International Airport Station, which typically finalises within 24 hours of the observation date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.