Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, Seoul will record its highest temperature of that day at Incheon International Airport Station, the official measurement point for the city's weather data. The settlement will depend on the final reading logged by Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date.

Seoul's late May temperatures typically range between 22°C and 28°C, though extremes have occurred. Historical data from the past decade shows that 26 May readings have fluctuated considerably—some years recording highs near 30°C during early heat waves, whilst others remained in the low-to-mid 20s during cooler springs. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available in this market or are waiting for seasonal forecasts to narrow the likely outcome. Comparable late-spring days in Seoul show high variability depending on whether Pacific high-pressure systems have begun their seasonal northward push.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in April and early May 2026, which will provide increasingly reliable guidance on whether anomalous heat or cooler conditions are expected. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks three to four weeks in advance. Any significant weather pattern shifts—such as early monsoon onset or an unusually strong anticyclone—would materially affect the day's peak temperature. Settlement hinges entirely on the Incheon station's recorded data, making the specific instrument location and measurement methodology the critical reference point rather than city-centre readings or other stations.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.